This interactive chart shows our projection of the funding pressures facing primary care trust (PCT)-commissioned services in the English NHS between 2010/11 and 2014/15, together with the funding allocation laid out in the 2010 spending review, and the potential effect of measures taken to close the funding gap.

The dark blue line shows the likely funding allocation available for PCT-commissioned services in England as detailed in the 2010 spending review. This represents around 80 per cent of the total budget for the English NHS.

The dark grey line shows funding pressures under our baseline assumption, in which recently observed trends in hospital activity, chronic conditions and pay continue. By 2014/15, these funding pressures would exceed the funding allocation by around £13 billion in real terms. This would equate to around £16 billion in real terms over the whole budget for the English NHS.

The light blue line shows reduced funding pressures after accounting for the current and planned pay restraint. Historically, pay for health care workers has risen by two per cent a year above inflation. Under current pay policy, around 40 per cent of the funding gap could be met, reducing it to £7 billion by 2014/15 in real terms.

The green line shows further reduced funding pressures after accounting for better management of people with chronic conditions. If admissions for chronic conditions could be prevented from rising above the 2009/10 rate, a further quarter of the funding gap could be met, reducing it to £4 billion by 2014/15 in real terms.

The pink line shows further alleviation of funding pressures following reductions in hospital activity through assumed QIPP productivity measures. Using national measures of productivity, we have explored the potential for reductions in hospital activity. Our modelled activity reductions would effectively close the funding gap in 2014/15.

This chart is taken from the report: A decade of austerity? The funding pressures facing the NHS from 2010/11 to 2021/22 (Nuffield Trust, December 2012), which forms part of the Nuffield Trust’s wider research programme: Buying time: what is the scale of the financial challenge facing the NHS and how can it be met?

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