This interactive chart shows two possible future scenarios for the pressures facing the social care system in England between 2010/11 and 2021/22, together with the funding allocation if spending on social care in England was frozen in real terms from 2010/11.

The dark blue line shows the future funding pressures facing the adult social care system in England assuming that current patterns of care stay constant. Spending on social care for over-65s is projected to rise from £7 billion to £9 billion in real terms between 2010 and 2021. This equates to an increase for all adult social care from £15 billion to £21 billion in real terms between 2010 and 2021.

The dark grey line shows the future funding pressures facing the adult social care system in England if age- and sex-specific rates of chronic conditions continue to rise in line with recent trends. Under this scenario, spending on social care for over-65s will rise to £10 billion in real terms in 2021. This equates to an increase for all adult social care to £23 billion in real terms in 2021.

The light blue line represents a freeze in real-terms funding for social care in England. If funding is frozen in this way there would be a funding gap of between £7 and £9 billion in real terms in 2021/22.

This chart is taken from the report: A decade of austerity? The funding pressures facing the NHS from 2010/11 to 2021/22 (Nuffield Trust, December 2012), which forms part of the Nuffield Trust’s wider research programme: Buying time: what is the scale of the financial challenge facing the NHS and how can it be met?

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