Buying time: what is the scale of the financial challenge facing the NHS & how can it rise to the challenge?

We are examining the key strategic challenge facing the NHS over the next decade – how to meet the needs of a growing and ageing population and the need to improve the quality of care and health outcomes within a health care budget that will grow at a much slower rate than the past decade (and which is likely to decline as a share of Gross Domestic Product).

This project will examine how the NHS in England can meet the key challenge of improving patient care within a severely constrained budget.

This project is bringing together research and evidence on the efficiency and effectiveness of health and social care to answer four key questions:

• What is the scale of the financial challenge facing the NHS and social care system over the next 10 years?
• Can England meet the challenge by delivering more efficient and effective health and social care systems?
• What reforms would be needed to make this happen?
• What impact will the financial challenge and reform agenda have on equity in the NHS and the social care system?

We aim to provide an in-depth analysis bringing together expertise across Nuffield Trust and our associates to look at the system-wide implications of our work. We will consider health and social care in an integrated way.

The programme will bring together clinical, patient, financial and policy perspectives in developing recommendations and will be empirically based. The work will be undertaken in two phases:

• Phase 1: 2011-2012: Assessing the scale of the financial challenge.
• Phase 2: 2012-2013: Rising to the challenge; options and their implications.