Predictive risk and health care: an overview

Predictive risk models are being used by many NHS organisations to identify which individuals are at high risk of a future unplanned hospital admission, so that these people can be offered preventive care. The Nuffield Trust research summary: Predictive risk and health care: an overview (Mar 2011), provides an overview of this technique and its application in the health service.

This is a presentation of the key slides from this research summary which illustrates the principal uses of risk adjustment, and demonstrates the phenomenon of ‘regression to the mean’ and how this can be controlled for in risk-adjusted evaluations.