Geraint Lewis: Highlights from the Four Nations Predictive Risk Summit

In this video, Nuffield Trust Senior Fellow Dr Geraint Lewis provides the highlights from a one-day summit to encourage collaboration between researchers, policy-makers and practitioners in the four home nations of the UK with respect to predictive risk modelling.

Predictive models (such as PARR and the Combined Model in England, PRISM model in Wales and SPARRA in Scotland) use patterns in routine electronic data to make forecasts at the individual level. People identified as being at high risk may be offered targeted, preventive care aimed at keeping them healthy. This summit was an opportunity to raise awareness of:

• Predictive modelling schemes used in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wale;
• Applications within national/regional and public/private sector schemes;
• Similarities and differences in approaches to risk modelling;
• Data sharing and linking, data access and confidentiality issues;
• Future developments (such as Predicting future costs of social care).