PBRA: new methods for predicting future NHS expenditure


Published: 28/06/2011

The ability to predict appropriate future expenditure for hospital care for general practices or emerging clinical commissioning groups is a major priority for the NHS in England.

This video animation outlines the history of resource allocation in the NHS and examines how new developments – led by the Nuffield Trust and partners – are helping to deliver more accurate methods for predicting future expenditure for hospital care for GP practices or clinical commissioning groups covering different population sizes.

The animation describes the new approach to estimating budgets – Person Based Resource Allocation – and how it works. It uses electronic data routinely collected on individual patients in the NHS (in a way which protects their confidentiality), on the supply of health services available to these individuals, and on the characteristics of the community in which they live, to predict the cost of their hospital care in the next financial year. The greater the health needs of the individual, the greater the likely future cost of hospital care.

The ability to estimate allocations for small populations has become especially important within the context of clinicians holding budgets for acute services. To find out more about the Nuffield Trust’s work in this area, visit the Person Based Resource Allocation project page.

At the Nuffield Trust we plan to continue to use video animations, as well as interactive ways of visualising data, to bring our work to life. We hope you enjoy viewing this animation.