Nuffield Trust response to Autumn Budget

Responding to today's Autumn Budget, Nuffield Trust Senior Policy Analyst Sally Gainsbury said:

“Under today’s Budget, day-to-day NHS spending is set to rise 2.2% next year, and while it has escaped cuts, this harks back to the slow growth we saw under 2010s austerity. There are some small boosts to pay for redundancies and new NHS tech. But with this now set to be one of the tougher periods for funding in the NHS’s history, an awful lot is being asked from this modest increase - from improving access to GPs in poorer areas, to totemic pledges like reducing hospital waiting lists.

“As the OBR warns, the unresolved dispute between government and the pharmaceutical industry is still looming large. If the government concedes to pay higher prices for the same drugs, that will either eat into today’s settlement or divert funding away from more cost-effective care like GP appointments, which give patients much greater health benefit for every pound spent.

“Meanwhile, today’s Budget has boosted the National Living Wage - which will come as welcome news to the many social care workers on low wages - but there’s no new money to help the care sector with the impact. With almost a quarter of the 1.5 million strong care workforce paid within 10 pence of the Living Wage in 2024, even small increases can have a big impact on the cost of delivering care. We estimate that this increase could cost the sector around £1.2 billion[1]. It is difficult to see how current levels of investment will stretch to deliver even the planned social care workforce reforms, let alone leave enough for wider changes to England's broken care system.

“Social care is still in dire straits and the impact of last year’s Budget measures, including Employer National Insurance rises, are beginning to bite. Ultimately, people who need care and support will feel the effects as cost pressures continue to increase.”