Nuffield Trust response to the Spring Forecast

Responding to the Spring Forecast, Nuffield Trust Senior Policy Analyst Sally Gainsbury said:

“Today, the Chancellor said: ‘growth is for a purpose – to make working people better off’ [1]. But in its recent trade deal with the US, the government put the uncertain promise of economic growth above the interests of the NHS and the health of the population as a whole [2].

“The government has still not published the full details of the deal, but the implications are clear: the NHS will have to pay much more for new branded medicines and will only be able to afford that by reducing spending on other forms of care, including general practice and the treatment of patients on the waiting list. Those forms of care bring far greater health benefits to patients for every £1 spent than new branded drugs, so the overall impact of the deal will be a reduction in the health improvements the public is able to get from the NHS.

“The question of how much we should pay for innovative health treatments, either directly or indirectly through other public services we sacrifice, is an important one. The US trade deal is clearly part of wider geopolitics that go beyond the NHS. But instead of promoting discussion and an exploration of the evidence, the government is withholding information. We urge the government to publish both the details of the deal and the impact assessments it has carried out on the implications for the NHS and wider economy.

“A clear trade-off made by successive previous governments has been to prioritise expensive but innovative health care above better social care for older and disabled people. The Chancellor was silent today on the increasingly precarious financial outlook for local government. If the government is not careful, there may be little left of a social care system to reform, despite Baroness Casey’s best intentions.”