Nuffield Trust response to the Spring Statement

Responding to the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, Nuffield Trust Senior Policy Analyst Sally Gainsbury said:

“Today’s announcements have added to the already substantial pressures being felt in the health service. They mean that the day-to-day health budget for next year will grow by less than 2% in real terms, after adjusting for the impact of national insurance increases in the NHS. This compares to a long-term average of nearer 3%.

“The government has highlighted opportunities for savings made to central administration costs to be reinvested into the front line, such as through dismantling NHS England. It’s absolutely right to drive down duplication and waste when the health service is under such pressure. But these savings are unlikely to deliver anything like the boost to funding needed to keep up with population demand.  

“Over the last decade and a half, successive governments have repeated the same mistake of underestimating the level of funding growth required to keep up with growing patient needs and expectations, resulting in chaotic last minute top ups to the budget. This has already happened for the budget for the current financial year, which had to be supplemented with an extra £800m for the NHS just four months after the Chancellor’s autumn statement.

“Adult social care has once again been hung out to dry. Today’s statement confirms the absence of funding to cover extra costs, which we estimate will amount to £2.8bn from Employer National Insurance Contributions and minimum wage increases for care providers. This will likely lead to many providers going bust or reducing services, meaning people will suffer from less choice or poorer quality care.

“The government has promised long-term reform of adult social care with the upcoming Casey Commission. The newly announced Transformation Fund offers billions of extra funding for reforming public services, but it’s unclear whether any of this will be used for desperately needed changes to adult social care. Today’s worrying financial outlook risks jeopardising the sector before Baroness Casey’s feet are even under the table.”