Journal article information
- Journal of publication: Age and Ageing
- Nuffield Trust contributors: Dr Adam Steventon, Dr Geraint Lewis, Dr Jennifer Dixon CBE, Dr Martin Bardsley, Professor John Billings and Theo Georghiou
- Volume: 40
- Issue: 2
- Page range: 265-270
The costs of delivering health and social care services are rising as the population ages and more people live with chronic diseases.
Analysis of pseudonymous, person-level, data extracted from the administrative data systems of local health and social care organisations.
Five primary care trust areas in England and their associated councils with social services responsibilities.
People aged 75 or older registered continuously with a general practitioner in five selected areas of England (n = 155,905).
Multivariate statistical analysis using a split sample of data.
It was possible to construct models that predicted which people would begin receiving intensive social care in the coming 12 months. The performance of the models was improved by selecting a dependent variable based on a lower cost threshold as one of the definitions of commencing intensive social care.
Predictive models can be constructed that use linked, routine health and social care data for case finding in social care settings.